European integration has been increasing steadily since the end of WWII. The U.K. is renegotiating its membership in the EU.

We have raised the odds of recession to 30% today, from around 10-15% at the start of the year. The initial jobless claims indicator, one of many that we monitor, suggests little cause for immediate recession concerns.

Our view is that while the odds of a U.S. recession in 2016 remain low, they have increased since the start of the year. Some investors fear that the remainder of the year will be a repeat of January 2016, 2008, or 1998, which we think is unlikely.

The Fed holds its first FOMC meeting of 2016 this Tuesday and Wednesday, January 26-27, 2016. Without a press conference or a new set of economic and fed funds projections, the Fed must rely on its statement to communicate a complicated message to fragile markets.

The latest Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy is still growing near its long-term trend. However, Main Street’s latest assessment suggests that the manufacturing sector continues to be affected by oil and energy prices.

The Chinese government began to liberalize policies regarding the control of both the equity and currency markets. The markets have not always responded in the way predicted. The government responded by enacting additional policies, adding to volatility.