2019 has been a busy year so far. The United States has weathered a 35-day government shutdown, global data have deteriorated further, trade headlines continue to dominate the news, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has made a significant U-turn in monetary policy plans, all on top of the sharp market selloff in late 2018.

Deteriorating confidence over the last several months has soured the economic landscape. About four months ago, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index reached an 18-year high. Since then, the gauge has dropped about 18 points, its biggest three-month decline since 2011. Sentiment’s swift decline has caused some to wonder if a drop in confidence could…

The Fed’s Policy U-Turn

The Fed Faces Market Fears The Fed’s signals on future policy in this week’s meeting will be especially telling. The Fed’s dot plot implies two rate hikes in 2019, but futures traders are positioning for a pause.

The Beige Book Barometer dropped to a nine-month low. While Main Street still sees economic health, uncertainty is at its highest point in years.

A Historic Government Shutdown[…]