Highlights The U.S. economy is improving, and in many cases is back to normal, but it remains stubbornly weak in some areas. “Real world” indicators that point to the health of the economy include crane rental rates and customer traffic in restaurants. Economic uncertainty–likely a drag on economic growth in 2011, 2012, and 2013–has faded…

Highlights The latest Beige Book reflects a picture of the U.S. economy that has, thus far, been largely unaffected by current geopolitical headlines. The latest Beige Book again described “modest to moderate economic growth” in the U.S. economy and employment expansion at a pace similar to that noted in the previous Beige Book (September 3,…

Highlights The pace of growth in the global economy is a key driver of global earnings growth,and ultimately, the performance of global equity markets. Global GDP growth in 2014 remains on track to accelerate versus 2013’s pace, and the consensus is forecasting acceleration in global growth in 2015. Potential growth headwinds in 2015 include the…

Highlights The nation’s fiscal situation has improved dramatically in the past five years due to overall economic improvement and a combination of higher tax rates and modest spending increases. However, structural and demographic problems that will drive the deficit over the next several decades remain in place. If policymakers continue to ignore critical warning signs,…

Highlights We continue to expect housing may add to GDP growth in 2014 and for the next several years as the market normalizes following the severe housing bust of 2005-2010. Housing affordability and supply, and the supply and demand for home mortgages, will likely determine the pace at which housing increases GDP growth in the…

Highlights The key now for the Fed, as it deliberates when to begin to raise rates, is to gauge how quickly the output gap is likely to close. The pace at which the U.S. economy takes up slack is likely to command a great deal of attention from the Fed and market participants in the…