The negative-yielding debt around the world has grown to $10.4 trillion, its highest point since September 2016. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 31 basis points (0.31%) in March as prices jumped, and the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index notched its best monthly performance in four years.

Seasonality could be on the bull’s side, especially after U.S. stocks’ best first quarter on 20 years.

With a day to go, this is one of the best first quarters for the S&P 500 Index ever. Of course, it comes on the heels of the worst fourth quarter since the financial crisis and the worst December since the Great Depression. Still, you have to be impressed with the overall bounce back after…

Well, it finally happened—the yield curve inverted. Now note that it was the shorter end of the curve that inverted, as the 3-month Treasury bill (and 1-year T-bill) now yields more than the 10-year Treasury for the first time since 2007.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one of our favorite economic indicators. It is designed to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators (like manufacturers’ new orders, stock prices, and weekly unemployment claims) whose changes tend to precede shifts in the overall economy.

Bonds are sending a potentially ominous signal about the U.S. economy. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month Treasury yield on March 22 for the first time since August 2007. Yield curve inversion, or long-term rates falling below short-term rates, has preceded each of the nine recessions going back to 1955.