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October and the Fourth Quarter in Six Charts
After a historic 60% rally, stocks pulled back in September before a late-month bounce. In the end, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.9% but was still up a very impressive 8.5% for the historically weak third quarter. As we noted three months ago after the S&P 500 gained 20% in the second quarter, continued strength…
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How Corporate Bond Spreads Respond to Equity Market Volatility
An old Wall Street adage says bond markets are smarter than equity markets, so when stocks encounter volatility, investors often look to the bond market for clues about the potential severity of equity market weakness.
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September Bears Strike Again
The September weakness continued with the S&P 500 Index 9.6% off the all-time high set on September 2 (as of 9/23/20). It is important to remember that after a 60% rally in the S&P 500—and much more in some of the large-cap tech stocks—this type of seasonal weakness is normal and expected. We noted in…
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Healthy But Manageable Consumer Inflation
Consumer inflationary pressures grew at a healthy, but manageable rate in December 2019.
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What Mideast Escalation Means for Markets
The U.S. airstrike that killed the top Iranian military commander last week was a major escalation in Mideast tensions. In fact, it would be difficult to overstate the geopolitical significance of this action. Iran likely will retaliate, possibly with attacks on American military personnel overseas. We cannot dismiss the risk that the situation may escalate…
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Sentiment Stands Strong
Business confidence surged in May despite renewed uncertainty in the U.S.-China trade dispute.