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Client Letter | “Fed Move Suggests Economy Is On Track” | March 2018
Dear Valued Investor: The first quarter of 2018 is wrapping up, and it’s time to spring forward and look ahead to what we could expect in the coming months. After a large market drop kicking off the month of February, March has been relatively calm for stocks so far. The biggest event of the month…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of March 19, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS In the spirit of March Madness, we have compiled our “Sweet 16” for the markets. We identified 16 keys for stocks for the rest of 2018 and assessed their potential market implications. We expect stocks to add to year-to-date gains driven by better economic growth and strong earnings, despite trade tensions. WILL THIS…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of March 5, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS During the nine-year bull market period, the S&P 500 nearly quadrupled in value including dividends. Although valuations are stretched by many historical measures, interest rates and inflation levels remain relatively low, while none of our favorite leading indicators suggest that the bull market is nearing its end. Given solid momentum in global demand…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of February 26, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS We have raised our 2018 S&P 500 EPS forecast from $147.50 to $152.50 and our S&P 500 year-end fair value target to 2950-3000. Guidance has been very strong on the back of the new tax law, better growth, and a weak U.S. dollar. Fourth quarter earnings season produced the best earnings and revenue…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of February 20, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks have made a significant comeback, rallying nearly 6% off the recent lows. Solid fundamentals and technical indicators suggest that recent lows may hold. Historical relationships suggest stocks and yields can move higher together and stock valuations are justified based on current inflation levels. OUT OF THE WOODS? Are we out of the…
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Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS A perfect storm of investor worries collided over the past six trading days, resulting in an unprecedented bout of market volatility. These experiences provide a good opportunity for investors to reassess current allocations relative to long-term targets. We maintain our year-end S&P 500 fair value estimate of 2850-2900, representing a move of approximately…