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What a Non-Recessionary Bear Might Look Like | Weekly Market Commentary | February 8, 2016
Four of the 10 bear markets since 1968 occurred without an accompanying recession, in 1976, 1987, 1998, and 2011. These bear markets can be placed into three categories: policy mistakes, financial crises, and excessive speculation.
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Groundhog Day? | Weekly Economic Commentary | February 1, 2016
Our view is that while the odds of a U.S. recession in 2016 remain low, they have increased since the start of the year. Some investors fear that the remainder of the year will be a repeat of January 2016, 2008, or 1998, which we think is unlikely.
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Fear February After Jittery January? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 1, 2016
With the S&P 500 down 5.1% in January, the January Barometer is getting a lot of press. Here we discuss the reliability of this indicator and several factors that may lead to better performance in February.
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What Does the Yield Curve Say? | Bond Market Perspectives | February 2, 2016
Though the yield curve has been flattening in recent weeks, it still has a long way to go before an inversion. There are multiple ways to measure the yield curve and therefore several ways to interpret.
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Tough Start for High-Yield | Bond Market Perspectives | January 26, 2016
High-yield bond price declines have been exacerbated by rising default expectations, which we believe may have gone too far. The fear prevalent in the high-yield market may have created a unique opportunity for those who can tolerate near-term volatility until fundamentals return to the forefront.
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FOMC FAQs: Making a Statement | Weekly Economic Commentary | January 25, 2016
The Fed holds its first FOMC meeting of 2016 this Tuesday and Wednesday, January 26-27, 2016. Without a press conference or a new set of economic and fed funds projections, the Fed must rely on its statement to communicate a complicated message to fragile markets.