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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of March 12, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS Our Five Forecasters are collectively indicating that further economic growth and stock market gains appear likely. This commentary will look at the yield curve, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and stock valuations. Though stock valuations are high, they are falling as earnings ramp up, and are generally less effective as a timing tool. FIVE…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of March 5, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS During the nine-year bull market period, the S&P 500 nearly quadrupled in value including dividends. Although valuations are stretched by many historical measures, interest rates and inflation levels remain relatively low, while none of our favorite leading indicators suggest that the bull market is nearing its end. Given solid momentum in global demand…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of February 26, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS We have raised our 2018 S&P 500 EPS forecast from $147.50 to $152.50 and our S&P 500 year-end fair value target to 2950-3000. Guidance has been very strong on the back of the new tax law, better growth, and a weak U.S. dollar. Fourth quarter earnings season produced the best earnings and revenue…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of February 20, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks have made a significant comeback, rallying nearly 6% off the recent lows. Solid fundamentals and technical indicators suggest that recent lows may hold. Historical relationships suggest stocks and yields can move higher together and stock valuations are justified based on current inflation levels. OUT OF THE WOODS? Are we out of the…
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Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS A perfect storm of investor worries collided over the past six trading days, resulting in an unprecedented bout of market volatility. These experiences provide a good opportunity for investors to reassess current allocations relative to long-term targets. We maintain our year-end S&P 500 fair value estimate of 2850-2900, representing a move of approximately…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of February 5, 2018
KEY TAKEAWAYS Friday’s sharp stock market decline might have led us to forget that just a few days ago many claimed the stock market was melting up. Now concerns have turned to whether last week’s sell-off is the start of something much bigger. We discuss whether stocks have melted up or if they are about…