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A Fed Pause and the Flattening Yield Curve
Investors have increasingly positioned for a Federal Reserve (Fed) pause, which could portend a shift in fixed income markets. Fed fund futures are pricing in about a 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2019, and the market’s dovish tilt has weighed on short-term rates
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Jobless Claims’ Historic Significance
Jobless claims have dropped to a 49-year low. Based on historical trends, this could signal that a U.S. economic recession is further off than many expect.[…]
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Why Tom Terrific Might Not Be So Terrific For Stocks
The Super Bowl indicator suggests that stocks rise for the full year when the Super Bowl winner comes from the original National Football League (now the NFC), but when an original American Football League (now the AFC) team wins, stocks fall.
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Europe’s Political and Structural Struggles
Brexit is getting a lot of headlines these days as the United Kingdom tries to figure out how to exit the European Union (EU).
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Stocks Bounced, Now What?
The big bounce off the December 24 lows continued last week, as the S&P 500 Index added 2.9% for the week. In fact, it has gained 2.9%, 1.9%, 2.5%, and 2.9% over the past four weeks for a total gain of 10.5%. Of course, the S&P 500 did have its worst December in 87 years…
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Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2019
Following last week’s rejection of Theresa May’s Brexit plan, we discuss what’s next for the United Kingdom and possible market implications.