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An Election Pattern You Might Not Know About
With Election Day a mere five days away, we thought we would add one last election forecaster to the mix of what we’ve presented over the last several months—as much because of what it might tell us about the American electorate as what it might tell us about the election.
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GDP Bounces Back
The outbreak of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns triggered the largest quarter-over-quarter decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) since WWII, so perhaps it comes as no surprise that the following quarter tallied the sharpest rebound in that same time period. GDP expanded 33.1% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, ahead of Bloomberg…
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Why Munis May Want Joe Biden to Win
Historically it has been unwise to attempt to “play” the stock market ahead of an election in an attempt to position based on perceived implications of a president’s policies, but the municipal bond market may be more susceptible to the results of this election. As stimulus talks in Washington appear stalled but not officially over,…
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The Best Day Of The Year Is This Week
With the election only eight days away and earnings season in full swing, stocks have bucked the usual October weakness during election years so far in 2020 (Monday’s losses notwithstanding). The good news is this could continue, as one of the best days of the year is right around the corner.
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Leading Indicators Show Slowing Pace of Economic Recovery
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book presented qualitative data that suggested the pace of the economic recovery had been tapering but now we have quantitative data that is confirming the survey data. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.7% month over month in September to beat Bloomberg consensus expectations of 0.6%, but slowed…
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Beige Book Shows Pace of Recovery is Moderating
We have seen a historic rebound in economic growth since the US economy emerged from lockdowns, but the pace of the economic rebound has tapered in recent weeks as the effects of fiscal stimulus fade. The recently released Federal Reserve (Fed) Beige Book appears to show that economic activity has become more segmented, with changes…