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Weekly Economic Commentary | Week of September 8, 2014
Highlights Over the past three Beige Books, the BBB has averaged +100, the highest reading over any three consecutive Beige Books since at least 2005. The latest Beige Book indicates to us that the negative headwinds that have held the U.S. economy back over the past seven years may finally be abating. Health care and…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of September 8, 2014
Highlights We believe the “three Rs” are keys to the outlook for the stock market: revenues (and profits), reinvestment, and the renaissance in manufacturing. We expect stocks to garner support from these three Rs in the form of continued growth in revenues and profits, more corporate reinvestment, and continued steady gains for the U.S. manufacturing…
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Portfolio Compass | Week of September 1, 2014
Navigating The Markets Compass Changes Downgraded foreign-unhedged to negative from negative/neutral. Downgraded foreign-hedged to negative/neutral from neutral. Investment Takeaways Our 2014 stock market forecast calls for gains of 10-15%, based on our forecast for 5-10% earnings growth and modest price-to-earnings (PE) multiple expansion.* We favor small caps and cyclical sectors, as we expect U.S. economic…
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Current Conditions Index | Week of September 1, 2014
How to Use the CCI The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool. This index is not intended to be…
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Weekly Economic Commentary | Week of September 1, 2014
Highlights The market is not expecting the ECB to begin QE this week, although other forms of policy support are likely. The data continue to suggest that more aggressive monetary policy from the ECB would have only a muted impact on the Eurozone’s real economy unless the fractured banking system can be repaired. Policy divergences…
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Bond Market Perspectives | Week of September 1, 2014
Highlights Although the decline in US Treasury yields has been significant in 2014, it is not quite at an extreme when viewed historically. However, the decline in European government bond yields has reached an extreme. Given the influence of European government bond yields on U.S. yields, this week’s ECB meeting may determine the market’s next…