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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of October 6, 2014
Highlights Earnings season is here and may counteract the negative headlines with another dose of positive fundamental news. We expect the third quarter of 2014 could produce another good earnings season, which we believe may positively impact stocks. While there are some headwinds, Europe in particular, the U.S. economic backdrop is supportive and profit margins…
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Portfolio Compass | Week of September 29, 2014
Navigating The Markets Compass Changes Downgraded large/small foreign views to negative from negative/neutral. Investment Takeaways Our 2014 stock market return forecast remains for gains of 10-15%,despite having approached the low end of that target, supported by continued near-double-digit earnings gains in the second half.* Small cap underperformance may be overdone, though technical weakness and the…
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Current Conditions Index | Week of September 29, 2014
How to Use the CCI The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool. This index is not intended to be…
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Bond Market Perspectives | Week of September 29, 2014
Highlights Multiple factors, none of them fundamental, have driven high-yield bond prices weaker in September. Performance versus investment-grade bonds is approaching an extreme and may signal a reversal. Late Summer Setback The end of summer has been less than kind to the high-yield bond market. A challenging month of September for the bond market has…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of September 29, 2014
Highlights: The yield curve has a perfect record in signaling recessions over the past 50 years. One of our “Five Forecasters,” the yield curve tells us that a recession and significant market downturn are likely a ways off. Grading on a Curve (the Yield Curve, That Is) Kids are back in school and have started…
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Weekly Economic Commentary | Week of September 29, 2014
Highlights We continue to expect housing may add to GDP growth in 2014 and for the next several years as the market normalizes following the severe housing bust of 2005-2010. Housing affordability and supply, and the supply and demand for home mortgages, will likely determine the pace at which housing increases GDP growth in the…