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“Growth Scare” | Search for Income | Third Quarter 2014
Global economic growth fears led to divergent changes in bond yields over the third quarter of 2014 and into the fourth quarter. A weakening European economy–which is on the brink of its third recession since 2008–and unrest in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Hong Kong, along with a decline in oil prices, boosted demand for…
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Current Conditions Index | Week of November 3, 2014
How to Use the CCI The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool. This index is not intended to be…
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Bond Market Perspectives | Week of November 3, 2014
Highlights The headwinds of rising high-quality bond yields and increasing new issuance have slowed the advance of high-yield bonds in late October 2014, relative to stock market gains. Nonetheless, we expect high-yield bonds may improve as economic expansion, earnings growth, and low defaults continue to drive our positive outlook. We continue to expect a challenging,…
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Weekly Economic Commentary | Week of November 4, 2014
Highlights The Fed ended its bond purchase program last week and the bar has been set fairly high for restarting more QE. The economy is in far better shape today, compared with the start of QE in 2008 and the end of QE1 and QE2. It is probably too soon to know if QE has…
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Weekly Market Commentary | Week of November 3, 2014
Highlights It is important to recognize that the S&P 500 is not GDP. S&P 500 companies have different drivers for earnings than the components that drive GDP. The backdrop of solid business spending within a slower trajectory of overall GDP growth can be a favorable one for the stock market. Although stocks are at the…
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Portfolio Compass | Week of October 27, 2014
Navigating The Markets Compass Changes Upgraded U.S. stocks to neutral/positive from neutral. Downgraded hedged foreign bonds from negative/neutral to negative. Investment Takeaways Our 2014 stock market return forecast remains for gains of 10-15%, supported by continued near-double-digit earnings gains in the second half.* Our negative foreign equities view reflects lackluster growth and structural impediments in…