Today is the last day of the month for June. It has been a wild month, as Brexit talk dominated the first three weeks of the month, then the wild volatility after the surprise vote to leave caught many off guard over the past week.
Something that has our attention is how weak the last day of the month has been lately. Incredibly, this day has been higher only three times going back 19 months.
Drilling down further, last year saw the last day of the month higher only twice. That was the lowest number since the early 1930s. This year only the last day of January has been higher so far.
Breaking things down by the month, since 1980, the last day of June is up only 41.7% of the time—the lowest out of all 12 months.
What could this late month weakness mean? If you think back over the past 19 months, the S&P 500 has been in a range and simply can’t break out. This coincides with the historical late month weakness as well. One under the radar clue that things may be turning around could be strength on the last day of the month. It hasn’t happened yet, but maybe June can kick off a new trend.
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