After closing above 2,100 for just the third time this year yesterday, the S&P 500 is now up 3.0% for the year and only 1.2% away from a new all-time high. That is on a price-only basis though, as if you look at the S&P 500 total return (including dividends), it closed at a new high yesterday. For a refresher on total returns, we talked about the hidden value from dividends in this blog post from April.
Besides the new all-time high in the S&P 500’s total return, market breadth, the number of stocks participating in a rally, continues to be a major positive to the bullish case. One of our favorite ways to measure market breadth is by using advance/decline lines of various indexes. The computation is rather simple: it is based on how many stocks were up or down for the day, and then computed on a daily and continuous basis. The thinking is that higher moves in an advance/decline line show strength under the surface of a rally. The flip side is that a weak advance/decline line could mean something is wrong under the hood.
Think back to last year at this time, all we heard was how bad the breadth was. Only the FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) were leading. With that weak underpinning, eventually things cracked to the downside in August. The good news is, we have nearly a total opposite technical backdrop this year.
New all-time highs were made yesterday in multiple advance/decline lines, including the S&P Mid Cap Index, the Nasdaq 100, the NYSE, the S&P 100, the S&P Small Cap Index, and the S&P 500 itself. That is a wide-ranging show of strength for various sized companies, which only strengthens the overall bullish case.
The one that caught our attention was the small cap advance/decline line making a new high. Small caps have lagged the past few years, and although we still don’t expect major outperformance from this group late in the economic cycle, it is a major plus to have small caps finally pulling their weight. Historically, strong small cap performance has often indicated investors’ willingness to hold riskier assets, and recent outperformance could be a sign for overall market strength coming.
Strong market breadth is a step in the right direction to finally break out of this historically tight range the S&P 500 has been for in the past 22 months. It is important to note that there can and will be pullbacks though, with new highs in advance/decline lines. Although we would expect any weakness to be relatively contained, a pullback as much as 10% or so is certainly possible. But as we explained in this week’s Weekly Market Commentary,any further volatility in the coming months could present a nice chance to buy the dip.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide or be construed as providing specific investment advice or recommendations for any individual security.
Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
The S&P 100 Index is a subset of the S&P 500 and includes 100 leading U.S. stocks.
The S&P Mid Cap Index measures the performance of midsized companies.
The S&P Small Cap Index measures the small cap segment of the U.S. equity market.
The Nasdaq 100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization.
Technical analysis is a methodology for evaluating securities based on statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices, volume and momentum, and is not intended to be used as the sole mechanism for trading decisions. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns and trends. Technical analysis carries inherent risk, chief amongst which is that past performance is not indicative of future results. Technical analysis should be used in conjunction with fundamental analysis within the decision making process and shall include but not be limited to the following considerations: investment thesis, suitability, expected time horizon, and operational factors, such as trading costs are examples.
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